The storming of Hong Kong’s legislative building on Monday was a severe escalation of recent demonstrations, which will give Beijing reason to consider using stronger force – perhaps even calling on the military in a move that would be reminiscent of the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square three decades ago. Over the last few weeks, Hong Kong police have fired tear gas, rubber bullets and bean bag rounds on protesters who have been asking city leaders to withdraw an extradition bill that would send suspects to face trial in mainland China where the Communist Party controls the courts. Those crowd-control measures, against protests that had largely been peaceful, quickly turned the public against the police, but left mainland China out of the fray. But now that demonstrators have successfully stormed government buildings, Beijing could have found itself justification for greater physical force to disperse demonstrators. Hong Kong police have clearly been well prepared - armed with riot shields, batons and protective vests - in comparison to the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement in 2014, the last time protesters took the streets. And Beijing is likely to give Hong Kong authorities one more chance to get a grip on the situation. Hong Kong protests: riot police baton charge and fire tear gas to clear demonstrations at parliament, in pictures “The Hong Kong police is still one of the most effective and efficient police forces in the world and it is perfectly capable of dealing with the situation,” said Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s SOAS China Institute. Bringing in the Chinese military would be a “last resort.” Beijing may also have been deterred from taking a stronger line so far to avoid awkward questions from the press when President Xi Jinping met US president Donald Trump at the G20 in Japan over the weekend. With that out the way, Beijing is freer to take a hard line. “Xi’s meeting with Trump was an enormous deterrence against allowing things to get really ugly in Hong Kong, and with that having now been removed, the risk of Beijing allowing more drastic actions taken is significantly higher,” said Mr Tsang. The resignation of Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam – who proposed the extradition bill that kicked the protests off – would be one way to close this chapter and move on, fulfilling one of the protesters' main demands. But it would have to be done without appearing to have the backing of Beijing, or risk making Mr Xi appear weak, having caved into protester demands. Authorities could also consider slapping rioting charges against protesters, which carry a jail sentence of up to ten years. But that carries risks for Beijing. Protesters out in the streets now could easily be in and out of prison for the next several years, and may bring more support to their cause. Joshua Wong, who was imprisoned for his role in the 2014 student protests, remained a key figure even behind bars and galvanised supporters in the latest unrest after his recent release. From a propaganda standpoint, China will likely continue with the same line it’s used for weeks – blaming unrest in Hong Kong on foreign interference and deflect responsibility. Beijing will not publicly entertain the idea that perhaps the frustrations are in response to Communist Party policies that haven’t sat well in Hong Kong. A state media editorial on Monday said that unrest is being spurred by “those who are using these grievances and disturbances as a means to serve their own agendas and put pressure on China.”
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