As the Ukrainian election heats up in April 2019, the incumbent President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko made a bold claim: Ukraine has made an indigenous cruise missile with a range of 1000 kilometers, capable of carrying a 150-kilogram warhead.The strategic implications of such a weapon might be critical for Ukrainian defense planning. But what is the missile likely based on? How could it be an effective deterrent?Using long-range conventional cruise missiles for deterrence against Russia is not without precedent. The American JASSM long-range aerial-launched cruise missiles are popular exports to countries bordering Russia, with Finland buying regular JASSMs with ranges of around 370 kilometers and Poland buying JASSM-ERs with ranges in excess of 900 kilometers.A common narrative is that these missiles would be used to strike Russian Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) weapons, allowing NATO air and sea reinforcements to operate in event of conflict. This too is applicable to Ukraine.However, a more crucial aspect may be delaying Russian reinforcements to a potential conflict. By striking infrastructure and troop concentrations, long-range cruise missiles may hinder reinforcements reaching the front line at critical points during battle.
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